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News Releases
Oregon Earns an Honorable Mention from Results for America for Investing in What Works - 11/20/24

Washington, D.C. – On Wednesday, Nov. 20, Results for America recognized Oregon as an Honorable Mention in its 2024 Invest in What Works State Standard of Excellence for its use of evidence and data to drive taxpayer dollars toward proven solutions. The announcement was made during an event with the National Governors Association.

“One of my key priorities as Governor is making sure our state government uses its resources wisely and focuses on providing the best outcomes to support the health, happiness and economic prosperity of all Oregonians. The Results for America recognition illustrates that Oregon continues to lead and mature in our use of data-informed decision making and in managing for results. I look forward to seeing agencies continue to strengthen their practices to deliver valuable services to Oregonians.” -Governor Tina Kotek.

Some highlights include: 

  • Oregon’s  Key Performance Measures system is a leading example of performance management. Agencies use this system to report regular progress on identified measures to the legislature and the Governor's Office.
  • In a 2022 report to the legislature, the Oregon Department of Education (ODE) Youth Development Division invested in local programs that meet evidence-based practice criteria.
  • The Oregon Health Authority (OHA) maintains an ongoing inventory of approved evidence-based practices in behavioral health, including culturally relevant services. OHA has also established the Health Evidence Review Commission to continually review and update an ongoing inventory of evidence-based practices at work within OHA.

Results for America’s 2024 Invest in What Works State Standard of Excellence evaluates all states against 12 criteria that measure how they are leveraging their budgeting, grantmaking and direct services authority to invest in what works and deliver better results for their residents faster.

Links:

Figure 1
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DAS Office of Economic Analysis Presents the December Revenue Forecast (Photo) - 11/20/24

With changes in the national economic outlook, Oregon is moving toward a soft landing.

Salem, OR – Carl Riccadonna, state chief economist at the Department of Administrative Services (DAS) and head of the Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), presented the latest revenue forecast to a joint meeting of the Oregon Legislative Revenue Committees. The quarterly revenue forecasts serve to open the revenue forecasting process to public review and is the basis for much of the Oregon state government budgeting process. 

The Office of Economic Analysis provides quarterly forecasts for the State of Oregon’s major revenue sources, including all sources contributing to the General Fund (Personal and Corporate Income Tax, etc.), Lottery and the Corporate Activity Tax. In May of odd years, OEA’s revenue forecast establishes the resource levels for the next biennium’s adopted budget.

What is different about this forecast?

The revenue forecast presented in today’s committee begins with a modified analytical approach. Carl Riccadonna and his team reviewed the methodology and outcomes of the revenue forecast over several recent biennia to identify potential sources of error. The past forecasts ultimately deviated significantly from actual tax collections, as shown in figure 1. 

The Nov. 20 forecast reflects methodological adjustments that result in immediate increases to the forecast. The reason for these methodology changes is because the historic forecast errors have increased in magnitude and shown a persistent bias since 2009. OEA’s adjustments are expected to address these issues. 

The Office of Economic Analysis has made two main adjustments:

  1. Reconstruction of the Personal Income Tax model to reflect true tax liability and collections. As part of this change, modeling of the kicker impact was more intrinsically incorporated into the model. This will eliminate a false signal of weakness in current tax year collections 
  2. Tighter alignment between the Oregon revenue forecast assumptions and the larger, national economic trends.

The intent of these changes is to reduce future forecast error and align income tax forecasts with economic assumptions. 

The results

The December revenue forecast projects the 2023-25 General Fund ending balance to be $2.79 billion, with revenues increasing by $945 million since the September forecast. 

In the 2025-27 biennium, General Fund available resources are forecast to increase by $2.27 billion, and revenues increasing by $1.3 billion from the September forecast. This results in a total of $37.8 billion projected available resources. 

About the Office of Economic Analysis

The state chief economist oversees the Office of Economic Analysis within the Department of Administrative Services and provides objective forecasts of the state’s economy, revenue, populations, corrections population and Youth Authority population. These forecasts are used across state government, and by the public for a variety of reasons, notably to inform the state budgeting process. For more information about the Office of Economic Analysis and recent forecasts visit https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/pages/index.aspx

 

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Attached Media Files: Figure 1